US calls China’s bluff

Posted on January 15, 2012 by Antigone1984.com

Editorial note: If you have not yet read our mission statement above, please do so in order that you can put our blogs in context. 

15 January 2012

The major geopolitical development this weekend has been the US decision to penalise a Chinese company – Zhuhai Zhenrong – for selling refined petroleum products to Iran in defiance of an embargo imposed to punish Iran for continuing to push ahead with its attempts to achieve nuclear independence.

According to a BBC website report, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said on 14 January 2012 that China expressed its “strong dissatisfaction” with and “adamant opposition” to the US decision.

“Imposing sanctions on a Chinese company based on a domestic (US) law is totally unreasonable and does not conform to the spirit or content of the UN Security Council resolutions about the Iran nuclear issue,” he added.

Washington has accused Zhuhai Zhenrong of being the largest supplier of refined petroleum products to Iran. It is said to be one of three international firms that will be punished for dealing with Iran. The other two are Singapore’s Kuo Oil and FAL Oil, an energy trader based in the United Arab Emirates.

According to the BBC report, the US State Department said that its sanctions on firms breaking the embargo prevent them from receiving US export licences, US Export-Import Bank financing or any loans of over $10m from US financial institutions.

The European Union has agreed to follow the US by freezing Iranian Central Bank assets and imposing its own embargo on oil imports from Iran. Japan, another close ally of Washington, has also said it will introduce an embargo.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has been visiting Arab oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia, this weekend seeking alternative sources of supply amid fears of major disruption to Iranian oil exports as a result of the oil embargo. Iran is said to be China’s third largest supplier of oil, after Saudi Arabia and Angola.

Analysts said the sanctions against Zhuhai Zhenrong were largely symbolic, given that the company would be unlikely to do much business in the US.

It may be seen as more of a threat to larger Chinese energy companies, which have made big investments in the US energy sector.

“Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, is quoted by the BBC as saying: “This could be the beginning of a cascade of more sanctions on Chinese companies if China doesn’t curtail its Iranian trade.”

COMMENT BY ANTIGONE1984

The big question is whether China will adopt tit-for-tat sanctions against US companies.

On the one hand, it is understandable that the US does not want US funding to be used for trade which breaks its embargo (regardless of whether the embargo is justified or not). 

On the other hand, it is equally understandable that China, which does not support the embargo, resents the US threat that Chinese business interests will suffer if – unlike America’s pliant Western allies – China does not fall in with Washington’s wishes.

China is now just about strong enough, economically and militarily, to defy US hardball tactics. If it believes that its sovereignty is being infringed by a US diktat that threatens its national interests, it will be more than ready to respond in kind.

Another possibility is that the US may be flying a kite.

If the Chinese reaction is hardline, it may be that the US will ratchet down its rhetoric and softpedal the sanctions, at least so far as China is concerned. For one thing, China is a massive investor in US government bonds and, for another, the degradation of the Chinese economy – currently “the workhouse of the world” –  as a result of a shortfall in oil supplies would have an incalculable impact on the world economy, including that of the United States.

“May you live in interesting times”, the Chinese sage Confucius is said to have advised. 

The year 2012 looks like being an interesting year for US-China relations.

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Posted in China, Europe, Iran, Japan, UN, USA | Leave a comment

Sarkozy loses French presidential election

Posted on January 14, 2012 by Antigone1984.com

Editorial note: If you have not yet read our mission statement above, please do so in order that you can put our blogs in context. 

 

14 January 2012

SARKOZY’S BLACK FRIDAY

 

President Nicolas Sarkozy of France has lost the forthcoming presidential election, in which he will be standing for re-election.

 

This is a prediction made today by Antigone1984.

 

Yesterday 13 January credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s downgraded France’s sovereign debt credit rating from the top AAA grade to AA+.

 

Sarkozy has pinned the credibility of his economic stewardship over the four years of his current mandate on France retaining its AAA rating.

 

According to a report on the BBC website on 14 January 2012, Sarkozy’s Prime Minster François Fillon told a news conference that if France was in the firing line, it was primarily because of its exposure to the crisis in the eurozone. According to Fillon, it was not French government policies that were under attack from the ratings agency. Consequently, the government would push ahead with its economic policies based on cutting spending and bringing the annual budget back into surplus by 2016.

 

However, Sarkozy’s main opponent in the presidential contest, Socialist Party candidate François Hollande, said exactly the opposite in a radio interview on France Info on 14 January. It was not France that had lost credibility with the financial markets, according to Hollande, it was the Sarkozy government’s policies.

 

Hollande would say that, of course, and the French Government, likewise, would naturally try to downplay the downrating.

 

Whatever the reasons for the downgrade, Antigone1984 believes that “Black Friday” 13 January 2012 will be seen as the day when Sarkozy lost the presidency. France will henceforth be regarded in financial markets as a second-tier economy and the concomitant humiliation of this once great economic power will be deeply resented by a French electorate already hard-hit by the economic crisis.

 

Sarkozy is the natural scapegoat. It was on his watch that the downgrade occurred.

 

The first round of the two-stage presidential election takes place on 22 April 2012; the second, conclusive round on 6 May.

 

According to the BBC, the French government is conducting a communications campaign to inform the French people that “there is no need to panic”. A sure sign, if any were needed, according to Antigone1984, that the government is itself in a state of panic.

 

Standard and Poor’s yesterday downgraded nine of the 17 countries belonging to the eurozone. Apart from France, these were: Italy, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Cyprus, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta. The Austrian downgrade was also from AAA to AA+.

 

In announcing its downgrades, Standard and Poor’s is quoted as warning that budget discipline and austerity measures were not sufficient to fight the debt crisis and might become self-defeating.

It should be borne in mind, nevertheless, that France still has a top AAA rating from the other two main ratings agencies, Moody’s and Fitch.

The BBC report adds an explanatory note:

 

“Credit ratings are used by banks and investors to decide how much money to lend to particular borrowers.

 

“The cut in the so-called sovereign ratings of governments is likely to lead to most other borrowers domiciled in the same countries – including banks and companies – being downgraded.

 

“Although the move has been widely expected, it is still likely to make it somewhat more difficult and expensive for borrowers from those countries to raise money, including for the governments themselves.”

 

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Posted in Economics, Europe, France | Leave a comment

US troops pissed off in Afghanistan

Posted on January 13, 2012 by Antigone1984.com

Editorial note: If you have not yet read our mission statement above, please do so in order that you can put our blogs in context. 

 

13 January 2012

FEARS THAT VIDEO MAY NOT BE USED PROPERLY

 

Four US marines have been videoed in Afghanistan pissing on a group of dead Taliban fighters, according to the BBC website on 13 January 2012. At least one of the dead fighters is covered in blood.

 

A man’s voice is heard on the video saying: “Have a great day, buddy.”

 

All four marines are said to have been identified by the US Navy but their names have not been released.

 

The battalion to which the marines belonged is reported as having been active in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as at the notorious US prison camp at Guantánamo Bay in Cuba where suspects are detained indefinitely without trial in what are said to have been inhuman conditions.

 

It is not clear who released the footage, but correspondents say that it appears to be authentic.

 

The clip has been called “disgusting” and “inhuman” by both US and Afghan officials.

 

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed her “dismay” at the images, according to the BBC, while Afghan President Hamid Karzai is said to have requested the “most severe punishment” for those responsible.

 

In an address to military personnel at Fort Bliss, Texas, on Thursday, US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta is reported as saying that the video could jeopardise the prospects for US-Afghan peace talks.

 

“The danger is that this kind of video can be misused in many ways to undermine what we are trying to do in Afghanistan and the possibility of reconciliation,” Panetta is quoted as saying.

 

 

 

COMMENT BY ANTIGONE1984

 

 

We note that it is okay to kill people but not to piss on their bodies.

 

Got that?

 

However, we note also that  what seems to bother US defence secretary Leon Panetta is the video, rather than the fact that US marines have pissed  on the bodies of dead Afghans.  

 

Panetta is quoted as saying that “this kind of video can be misused in many ways”.

 

Misused?

 

No need for misuse, we think. 

 

This video speaks for itself without any misuse.

 

Have a great day, buddies.

 

 

THE AFGHAN WAR

 

Afghanistan is occupied by the International Security Assistance Force, a United Nations-mandated military alliance led by the US and including troops from up to 46 countries, including the United Kingdom. The occupation and accompanying war has now lasted for over 10 years. The US alone is thought to have about 90,000 troops on the ground in Afghanistan, including 20,000 marines. The foreign troops have been fighting al-Qaida, the Taliban and other native opponents of foreign military occupation.

 

 

 

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Posted in Afghanistan, Military, Politics, UK, UN, USA | Leave a comment

Keeping abreast of the great questions of the day

Posted on January 12, 2012 by Antigone1984.com

Editorial note: If you have not yet read our mission statement above, please do so in order that you can put our blogs in context. 

12 January 2012

“If we spend an hour every morning informing ourselves about distant wars and another hour lamenting their possible consequences, when we are neither ministers, generals, nor journalists, nor anything, we render no service to our country and we waste the most irrecoverable of our possessions: our own short life.”

This is a passage from “The Art of Living”, an essay published in 1939 by French Academician and writer André Maurois (1885-1967).

At first glance, Maurois’s message may sound attractive, particularly to busy people.

However, considered more critically, it seems  nothing less than reactionary.

It is generally assumed that the ideal citizen is an informed citizen. Or to put it another way, as Socrates did, “The unexamined life is not worth living” (Plato, Apology, 38a).

Maurois, however, appears to be recommending that ordinary people leave the great questions of the day either to their superiors or to the experts or to individuals that are both. Notice his view that some people – those not having major roles in public life – are “not anything”. People who are not anything should not bother their silly little heads with grand matters that are of relevance only to important people.

We have heard politicians say that politics is too complicated to be left to the ordinary citizen; it should be left to politicians. Or they go even further and contend that ordinary citizens do not want to bother their little heads with such matters: they have elected politicians to do this job and want them to get on with it.

We maintain that this is a recipe for authoritarianism and even dictatorship. Only by insisting that politicians are accountable to their electorates can we ensure that they do not deviate from the task of representing them.

By accountable we do not mean simply that politicians must re-present themselves to their electorates every four or five years. We mean that they must be accountable to, and subject to dismissal by, the citizen voter at any moment during their mandate.

However, in order to be in a position to hold politicians to account, electorates need to be composed of informed citizens. They ought not to bury their heads, ostrich-like, in the sand.  On the contrary, as informed citizens they should participate actively in the life of their society.

What do you think?

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Posted in France, Greece, Politics, UK | Leave a comment

Obama shoots from the hip: no more wars

Posted on January 11, 2012 by Antigone1984.com

Editorial note: If you have not yet read our mission statement above, please do so in order that you can put our blogs in context. 

11 January 2012

The least convincing forecast in the history of politico-military predictions appeared in an editorial in the UK Guardian newspaper on 6 January 2012.

The editorial began: “There were two unmistakable messages in the defence review outlined yesterday by Barack Obama in his appearance at the Pentagon briefing room.The first was that America is never going to fight wars like Iraq or Afghanistan again.”

Among political predictions of all time, this must surely be the least credible.

Believe that and you will believe anything.

This message is being put about by America as the nine-year US occupation of Iraq is just ending, the Afghan and Somali wars are in full swing, the US war in Pakistan is just beginning, America’s undercover operations in Yemen show no let-up, and the  US/Israeli attack on Iran is about to begin. As if that were not enough, the US is shifting its focus from Europe (see * below) to China, as it cosies up to the dictatorship in Burma, stations troops at a new base in northern Australia and beefs up its presence in the Philippines.

And did the Americans learn anything from the earlier defeat in their nine-year war in Vietnam (1964-1973)?

Zilch.

As if recognizing the untrustworthiness of Obama’s defence message, the  Guardian editorialist adds: “Turning the page on a decade of war (the president’s words) may not be an entirely accurate description of a power that will spend more on its forces than the next ten countries combined.”

Correct.

However, the editorial goes on to say that “the signal that the US will not fight another expensive, troop-intensive counter-insurgency campaign is clear enough”.

Really?

Words fail us.

Good night.

* The editorial defines the second message of Obama’s defence review as follows: “…the message is that Europe’s collective defence is up to Europe, and its forces have to stand alone.”

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Posted in Iran, Iraq, Military, Pakistan, Politics, UN, USA | Leave a comment

Quills and cutlasses

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Antigone1984.com

Editorial note: If you have not yet read our mission statement above, please do so in order that you can put our blogs in context. 

 

 

10 January 2002

 

 

“The pen is mightier than the sword.”

 

Not, we think, written by a military chap.

 

How mighty are the pens today in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Congo-Kinshasa, Somalia or China, to name but a few of the world’s trouble spots?

 

“The pen is mightier than the sword.”  Wishful thinking by pen-pushers?

 

It sounds good but rings false.

 

The truth, perhaps, is the reverse:

 

“The sword is mightier than the pen”.

 

However, since this may be taken as given by most intelligent folk, it has not, unlike its inverse, acquired the patina of a literary paradox.

 

We might not be happy that the military chap is right, but that is irrelevant.

 

The military chap might even go further:

 

“The sword is mightier than the pen and two swords are better than one.”

 

Who is to say that he is wrong?

 

Or, to put it a different way, paraphrasing a question Joe Stalin put to Churchill,  when the Georgian was asked to promote Catholicism in Russia: “How many panzer divisions has the Pope?”

 

Or then again down on the farm: “Fine words butter no parsnips.”

 

Bleedin’ obvious, innit?

 

 

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Posted in China, Congo (DR), Iraq, Military, Pakistan, Syria, UN | Leave a comment

Another “Orwell” spotted in the garden

Posted on January 9, 2012 by Antigone1984.com

Editorial note: If you have not yet read our mission statement above, please do so in order that you can put our blogs in context. 

 

9 January 2012

 

Sorry, guys, we’ve clocked another “Orwell” in the political rose garden – and it’s still only January.

 

Yes, this is a pretty straightforward “Orwell” courtesy of that well-known bunch of friendly freedom fighters, the Border Agency of the UK Interior Ministry.

 

As any fule kno, the Interior Ministry officially rides into battle under the cosy moniker of “Home Office”.

 

One of the main functions of the Home Office, via its Border Agency, is to prevent foreigners from making their “home” in the UK.

 

It’s a case of lucus a non lucendo, as we used to say in Hull.

 

Well, what do you know but, in the out-of-court settlement of a civil action, the Home Office is said to have just agreed to pay out a six-figure sum – we’re talking taxpayers’ money here, by the way – in compensation to four children of Kurdish asylum seekers from Turkey.  The Ay family’s request for asylum being opposed  by the UK authorities, the children, with their parents, are said to have been banged up in detention for 13 months.

 

Apparently, such detention is not good for children’s development and can result in long-term psychological and social problems, to say nothing of the disruption to their education.

 

The whole sorry saga was dissected by Diane Taylor and Simon Hattenstone on Page 3 (of the Guardian, not the Sun) on 7 January 2012. Their article is our source of information on the case.

 

The children are said to have been put in detention in 2002 on the watch of that egregious champion of civil liberties Prime Minister Blurr. Blurr’s views on the compensation pay-out are not referred to in the article. The Interior Minister (aka Home Secretary) at the time was David Blunkett. The Guardian says he was “unavailable for comment” on the settlement.

 

This all happened quite a long time ago now but one is naturally curious to know to what extent, if at all, the UK still maintains its policy of keeping the children of asylum-seekers in detention.

 

Donna Covey, chief executive of the Refugee Council, is quoted as telling the Guardian: “We celebrated when the [UK] coalition government pledged to end the detention of children, but remain disappointed that although conditions for children are slightly better, the new family removals process still includes detention.”

 

Not much improvement there then.

 

But wait a minute. Here comes a spokesman for the Border Agency. “In March 2011 we established a new family returns process that ended the detention of children,” he told the newspaper.

 

Oh dear! Those silly people at the Refugee Council, getting it wrong as usual, presumably. You see, they really have stopped detaining children. No bones about it. It’s there in black and white: the detention of children has ended.

 

But then, when everything was thought to be sorted, the Border Agency spokesman added a codicil: “As a last resort where all voluntary options have failed families may be held in our pre-departure removal accommodation…..”

 

Oh dear (again)! So they haven’t abolished the detention of children after all. They said that they had abolished it. And yet, in the next breath, they reveal that they haven’t.  What are we to make of this?

 

Confusion all round.

 

But then we have our Saul-on-the-road-to-Damascus moment. It’s all crystal-clear, really.

 

They still have detention but it is not called that any more!

 

It’s called “holding children in pre-departure removal accommodation”!

 

Brilliant! What a wheeze! Promote that person – the official who was responsible for this stroke of genius.

 

It will come as no surprise to readers to learn that we have nominated the UK Interior Ministry and its Border Agency as a candidate for the “Orwell Loo Brush Award” to be bestowed, in the fullness of time, on the most deserving candidate.

 

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Posted in Media, Politics, Turkey, UK | Leave a comment

Plea to Israel not to over-react to credit card hacking incident

Posted on January 8, 2012 by Antigone1984.com

Editorial note: If you have not yet read our mission statement above, please do so in order that you can put our blogs in context. 

8 January 2012

We reproduce below an item published on the BBC website yesterday Saturday 7 January 2012. We then add comment by Antigone1984.

‘ISRAEL VOWS TO RETALIATE AFTER CREDIT CARDS ARE HACKED

 

‘Israel has said it will respond to cyber-attacks in the same way it responds to violent “terrorist” acts after the credit card details of thousands of its citizens were published online.

 

‘A hacker named OxOmar claiming to be Saudi said on Thursday [5 January 2012] he had leaked the private information.

 

‘Credit card companies say at least 6,000 valid cards have been exposed.

 

‘Reports say OxOmar may be a 19-year-old living in Mexico.

 

‘Such cyber-attacks are “a breach of sovereignty comparable to a terrorist operation, and must be treated as such”, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon has said.

 

‘”Israel has active capabilities for striking at those who are trying to harm it, and no agency or hacker will be immune from retaliatory action,” he added, without giving further details.

 

‘An aide to Mr Ayalon said Israel was aware of the report OxOmar may be in Mexico, but had not yet requested help from the Mexican authorities, Reuters news agency reports.’

Comment by Antigone1984:

1. Many aspects of this report are vague and we believe it needs to be confirmed in detail before any definitive assessment can be made.

2. If the report turns out to be correct, then it depicts an extremely disturbing state of affairs.

3. The publicising of  private credit card details is wholly unacceptable and is likely to cause considerable worry and problems for the victims.

4. It is only natural that the Israeli authorities should want to take steps to find the culprit.

5. However, to treat the unauthorised publication of credit card details as “comparable to a terrorist operation” is way over the top. The comparison, we believe, is ludicrous.

6. Moreover, the following remarks attributed to Israeli deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon send a chill down the spine: “Israel has active capabilities for striking at those who are trying to harm it, and no agency or hacker will be immune from retaliatory action.” We cannot know what precisely Israel intends to do, but, given its history of bellicose reaction to provocation, one interpretation of Mr Ayalon’s remarks is surely that Israel is proposing to take out, ie assassinate, the hacker.

7. If that interpretation is valid, then, in our view, this would be a gross over-reaction. The standard way to deal with suspects in a democratic society is to take steps to ensure that they are brought before a court of law to answer for their actions.

8. We do not believe that any court of law, anywhere in the world, hopefully including Israel, would find that the unauthorized publication of private credit cards falls into the same category as terrorism.

9. We sincerely hope that Israel thinks twice before over-reacting to an incident which deserves a measured response. Its initial gut reaction of outrage should be tempered by wiser counsels. Let us hope that this is what happens. Shalom.

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Posted in Israel, Saudi Arabia, UN, USA | Leave a comment

Banking on goulash democracy

Posted on January 7, 2012 by Antigone1984.com

Editorial note: If you have not yet read our mission statement above, please do so in order that you can put our blogs in context. 

 

7 January 2012

 

The Hungarian Government is reported to have taken steps to lessen the independence of the country’s central bank by assuming the power to make its own appointments to the bank’s board of deputies.

 

The move has been roundly condemned by the European Commission, which, according to Le Monde (29 December 2011) has insisted that the measure be withdrawn.

 

This is understandable as the independence of central banks is a cornerstone of financial regulation in the European Union.

 

The last thing Brussels wants is for central banks to be responsible to democratically elected parliaments. Banking is far too important a matter to be left to decisions by representatives of the people.

 

This key area of the economy must be safely in the hands of technocrats “who know what they are doing” and who, unlike unpredictable members of parliament, are unlikely to rock the boat.

 

This is also why we now have governments in two other European countries that are led by unelected technocrats – Mario Monti (a former European Internal Market Commissioner) in Italy and Lucas Papademos (a former vice-president of the European Central Bank) in Greece.

 

The European Commission’s criticism of Hungary has been staunchly supported by the Washington-based International Monetary Fund, while the US Government has expressed its concern over the possible erosion of democratic “checks and balances” in the country’s constitution.

 

Unfortunately for Hungary’s opponents, however, the Government in Budapest has a solid majority in the country’s parliament. At the last parliamentary election in April 2010, the main government party Fidesz and its ally, the Christian Democratic People’s Party, won a combined total of 263 of the 386 seats in parliament – a majority of more than two-thirds and thus sufficient to make radical but legally valid changes to the Hungarian constitution.

 

Democracy, it seems, can produce inconvenient results.

 

Fortunately, help is at hand. The possibility of having recourse to Article 7 (2) of the Treaty on European Union is now being considered. This permits Member States which violate the European Union’s fundamental values – such as democracy – to be stripped of their voting rights.

 

Work it out for yourself.

 

To be fair to Hungary’s critics, other radical changes said to be in the legislative pipeline do give cause for concern. Media freedom is said to be under threat, journalists having been sacked, supposedly, at the behest of the government. The independence of the judiciary is also said to be threatened.  Moreover, according to Le Monde, the government has adopted an electoral law which redraws constituency boundaries so as to benefit Fidesz.

 

This is a country to keep an eye on.

 

Posted in Europe, Hungary, USA | Leave a comment

It’s that man Orwell again: celebrating the centralisation of localism

Posted on January 6, 2012 by Antigone1984.com

Editorial note: If you have not yet read our mission statement above, please do so in order that you can put our blogs in context. 

The City of Light, 6 January 2012

 

We were tickled by a report on academies in yesterday’s edition (5 January 2012) of the Guardian newspaper, which has just reached these benighted parts.

 

Academies are the spearhead of the drive by the UK Conservative/Liberal Democrat Government to privatise education.

 

In the past most state schools in England operated under the aegis of elected local authorities.

 

The previous conservative “Labour” Government decided to encourage schools to opt out of the control of local authorities – presumably regarded as hotbeds of pedagogical leftism – and reclassify themselves as “independent academies”.

 

These academies were to have increased freedom over how they spent their budgets and, within limits, could teach what subjects they wanted. Moreover, in a truly revolutionary development, they could be run by literally anyone, regardless of whether they had any connection with education or not. One leading sponsor of academies is a carpet salesman.

 

The rightwing “Labour” Government was turfed out of office in a parliamentary election in May 2010. It was replaced by a Government Coalition of the Conservative and Liberal Democrat Parties, who knew a good thing when they saw it and massively speeded up the creation of academies. According to the Guardian, there are now 1,529 academies, compared with 200 in the last days of Labour.

 

The Guardian report carries a coruscating attack by Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, on opponents of academies (who include the overwhelming majority of the teaching profession). “Every step of the way, they have sought to discredit our policies,” he said. “They are putting the ideology of central control ahead of the interests of children”.

 

The report adds that “academies, unlike other state schools, do not receive funds through their local authority but, instead, directly from central government”.

 

We should point out that one of the flagship policies of the Coalition Government is localism – known in other contexts as subsidiarity – the idea that decisions are best taken, if at all possible, at local level (presumably, for example, at the level of local authorities) rather than by the dead hand of central government.

 

You could not make it up.

 

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Posted in Education, Politics, UK | Leave a comment